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Tuesday
Apr 23, 2023 8:54:56 GMT
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Post by Tom Bowen on Apr 23, 2023 8:54:56 GMT
If we beat Tonbridge on Tuesday, we are still in with a chance as long as Worthing LOSE to relegation threatened Cheshunt.
Eastbourne are not a concern as they cannot make the playoffs with one game left.
Havant play Concord away on Thursday, who have found some form and look on track to perform a miraculous escape, and then face Welling at home.
But it's all meaningless if we fail to beat Tonbridge and/or Worthing pick up at least a point against Cheshunt.
Here is the run in:
Tuesday Cheshunt v Worthing Farnborough v Tonbridge
Thursday Concord v Havant
Saturday St Albans v Farnborough Worthing v Hemel Hempstead Havant v Welling Tonbridge v Cheshunt
Our fate hangs in the balance at Cheshunt and at the San Cherrio, ideally needing a six-goal swing in our favour over the next two games.
A lot to happen, let's do it Boro.
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Post by borobob on Apr 23, 2023 10:30:09 GMT
I fancy us to beat Tonbridge on Tuesday, but the goal tally looks a bit out of reach.
Worthing will not find it easy at Cheshunt, but we know how good they are at grinding a result.
Havant at Concord on Thursday, may well come unstuck, and rely on beating Welling on Saturday just two days later!!
Eastbourne at home to Concord on Saturday depends on how Concord get on with Havant on Thursday! A Concord win V H&W will certainly cause both Clubs a problem or two!
My prediction is Worthing get 4 pts (76) Havant 3 pts (69) Eastbourne 0 pts (68) St Albans 3 pts (75) Boro 3 pts (69) We miss out due to those dammed missed penalties!!!
9th place in a fantastic season!
Two wins would give us 7th though!!
COME ON YOU YELLOWWSSAA!!
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Tuesday
Apr 23, 2023 14:59:03 GMT
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Post by antz27 on Apr 23, 2023 14:59:03 GMT
As long as we win Tuesday worthings result doesn’t matter we could still catch St Albans. They have a better gd by 9 goals so if we win say 3-0 Tuesday that gd becomes 6 better than us then it’s down to the last game of the season and a 3 or 4 goal swing could be good enough.
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Tuesday
Apr 23, 2023 16:00:04 GMT
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Post by boromike on Apr 23, 2023 16:00:04 GMT
I’m confused by the permutations, unless I’m reading the table wrong it seems the only two possible ways we can make the play offs are -
1. Worthing lose both of their remaining matches and we win both of ours and in the process we turn around the 6+ goal difference currently in Worthings favour. I.e. we beat Tonbridge 3-0 and St Albans 0-2 whilst Worthing lose 1-0 at Cheshunt and 1-0 at home to Hemel.
2. We beat both Tonbridge and St Albans by an aggregate 10-0 score line (taking in to account St Albans 9+ goal difference advantage). I.e. we would need to score ten times without conceding across both matches, or score another goal for every goal we concede.
Realistically, option 2 isn’t happening and we therefore have no chance of over taking St Albans, so its option 1 or bust. Unfortunately, it’s just not in our hands. We can only hope Worthing fall apart and lose their last two matches and that we come in to some form and achieve convincing wins against both Tonbridge and St Albans.
Even if all the above went perfectly for us, if Havant won their remaining two fixtures we’d also need to have bettered their wins by 3 goals as they have a +2 superior goal difference.
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Tuesday
Apr 23, 2023 16:25:01 GMT
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Post by antz27 on Apr 23, 2023 16:25:01 GMT
No you need to take in to account for option 2 every time we score in the last game against St Albans they will lose one of their gd so a 1-0 win is a 2 goa swing where as a 2-0 win is a 4 goal swing as we would gain 2 and they would lose 2. But this is all insignificant if we don’t win Tuesday.
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Tuesday
Apr 23, 2023 16:39:37 GMT
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Post by boromike on Apr 23, 2023 16:39:37 GMT
No you need to take in to account for option 2 every time we score in the last game against St Albans they will lose one of their gd so a 1-0 win is a 2 goa swing where as a 2-0 win is a 4 goal swing as we would gain 2 and they would lose 2. But this is all insignificant if we don’t win Tuesday. Thanks, not sure how I wasn’t taking that in to account. Lesson learned, don’t try and work out permutations with a hangover 🤦🏻♂️ Let’s just stick 5 past Tonbridge without reply and make a 0-3 win on Saturday enough, not a lot to ask 😉
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Admin
Administrator
Posts: 905
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Post by Admin on Apr 23, 2023 22:15:13 GMT
But, isn't it great we're still talking about potential outcomes, in a good way, in the final week of the season?
Whichever way it goes, this summer is important. The second season after a promotion can be very hard for clubs that rest on their laurels. I'd like to hope we don't do that, whichever way this season goes.
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Tuesday
Apr 24, 2023 7:52:09 GMT
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Post by Tom Bowen on Apr 24, 2023 7:52:09 GMT
As long as we win Tuesday worthings result doesn’t matter we could still catch St Albans. They have a better gd by 9 goals so if we win say 3-0 Tuesday that gd becomes 6 better than us then it’s down to the last game of the season and a 3 or 4 goal swing could be good enough. I didn't consider that. It's unlikely though, I don't see us overturning that swing. So yes, if Cheshunt don't beat Worthing it isn't the end of the world but it does help. Everyone around us has scored more goals than us and Worthing and St Albans have a higher goal difference. But if we don't win on Tuesday, then none of it matters. It's out of our control unfortunately. As long as we do what we can, that's all I ask.
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